By Rifaat Hamid Ghani
To get past an impasse one has to be working towards that end: Have we reached a political impasse, and if so, just what comprises it?
Whether exasperated; despairing; or smug at the present state of the nation, we focus on the culpability of political parties first and foremost — and then on the dispositions of the judiciary and military establishment; which, whether in retreat or advance or marking time, are increasingly discussed. As there at least two sides to every question, (or better say allegation and indictment or stay) personal responses also become determinants. Individual response, assessment of, and commitment to the political process has heavy weightage in any of these contexts. As citizens of Pakistan and part of its electorate we may not be out on the streets demanding electoral immediacy or delay; but whenever elections are conducted we are the ones enfranchised at the assigned polling booths to choose “our” representative.
Whatever the cause, voters have shown increasing apathy when it comes to electoral turnout. Will this abstinence hold, given the presently impassioned, overcharged political antipathies and animosities? Or will it tout inclusion of the NOTA option on the ballot form?
The mindset promoting that electoral option is a copout: What does the voter want outside of that on offer? A ballot paper cannot offer a manifest column. The would-be rejectionist should have been out on the ground trying to formulate the acceptable alternative through a new political party, persuading voters to lend it their weight. That was the dynamic that birthed the PPP. And decades later, the PTI.
Does the PTI still fill that slot?
Its present handicap is that it has used up its initial chance to show its metal. Consider why it could not or would not deliver. And bear in mind that while past experience has relevance; analogies or examples from the past are not transferable templates or prophecies for today’s tomorrows. Similarities of circumstance or attitude, though they may be guides, are not replicas or duplicates. The aggressively sustained demand of the PTI (whose leader lost his position as leader of the house after a vote of no confidence last year) is provincial elections forthwith in the two provinces where his party held incumbency until he opted for dissolution there. There is a constitutional deadline for electoral reference (remember General Zia?). Remember, too, Zia saw Bhutto hanged for murder, and ponder what eliminating its charismatic founder did for the PPP politically and the SC bench: The failed dissenting minority is honoured. Bhutto is dubbed a democratic martyr.
Are the present government’s preferences and the ECP’s choice for electoral postponement in the dissolved provincial assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa merely a move to contain the PTI and deny it its political role? Would electoral delay actually nullify its impact within the national democratic process? Given the way the PMLN’s status has diminished after it was given the office of PM in the PDM-formed government; electoral delay would quite possibly better suit and favour the PTI’s Imran Khan than the PMLN’s Shehbaz Sharif.
Even by its sympathizers, the PMLN is not seen as focusing or handling with expected expertise the country’s grimly serious issues of governance. It is also being downright stupid in its electoral tactics when it imitates the Imran Khan style or attempts or tries to match insult with insult. In containing PTI’s civic disruptions it was initially pusillanimous and now appears harshly pre-emptive. What was Imran Khan’s ‘Jail bharo’ damp squib is now detonated as “Jail our leader at your peril”.
The PTI’s successful lobbying of the human rights aspect of political demos is a further embarrassment. The argument that the PTI was just as bad or worse is childish. Nor does it solve the problem of dealing with a party’s orchestrated and repeated flouting of law and disruption of civic function, and undeniable instances of violence or incitement thereto. Political stability is a far cry and the government of the day is blamed for not dispelling it or charged with being anti-democracy and tyrannical.
Do Imran Khan’s excitable followers feel it’s a case of Imran Khan and the PTI now or never? After all, why can he and they not wait until national elections are due in but a few months? One answer is that the national state will only worsen. Possibly quite true. But then unless elections give Imran Khan’s PTI an absolute majority that is also publicly convincing and not a conjuring trick, elections per PTI insistence or anyone else’s are scarcely a guarantee of improvement in terms of national political stability. Imran Khan’s PTI’s record of incumbency is one of a refusal to confer with or recognize his mainstream political rivals as fit to govern. Gaining and keeping the public ear shouting Chors, dakkus, ghadar at challengers is the PTI way. Even if Imran Khan were to gain an absolute parliamentary majority for his party without coalitional linkages and dependency, would it solve our problems in governance?
Parties like the PPP; PMLN; JI; JUI-F; Mohajir and other ethnic formulations have diehard loyalists who are equal citizens of Pakistan. They are not going to evaporate or all become expats away from the scene waving placards offshore. Nothing can succeed either democratically or constitutionally without a sincere and general reorientation within political leadership itself. Recall that people spontaneously welcomed military coups in the differing contexts of ZAB’s electoral ploys and Nawaz Sharif’s existent two-thirds majority in the lower house of Parliament.
If only because they have been in the political sphere longer, both the PPP and the PMLN have demonstrated positive democratic evolution. Unfortunately, in and out of office, Imran Khan has shown an inexcusable irresponsibility in his tactics and narratives. Can he reinvent himself? The repeated internal contradictions of his reasoning when he backtracks, accuses, modifies, or downright denies, raises questions as to his reliability or suitability for high executive office. None deny his box-office pull but that is not equivalent to a ballot-box house full. Nor are other box-offices boycotted. People are more likely to accept all political roadshows being taken off the road, than ceding a monopoly.
No matter how black they paint khaki, indigenous military arbitration is more acceptable than having our overtly failing conflicted state become a playing-field for sympathetic external visitations. After all, we have dealt with local military overreach before. On the other hand, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria etcetera are still overcome by what most Pakistanis view as uninvited hospitality.